Date: 27 July 2026

Sector: Energy / Oilfield Services & Equipment

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: OIH – VanEck Oil Services ETF
XES – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF:
FTI 1M Candles

FTI 1W candles
FTI 1D candles

Opening/macro/sector context

For the macro backdrop, I am looking mainly at OIH and XES.

OIH gives us the broader oil services view, while XES sits closer to the oilfield services and equipment space.

It is also worth noting that XES already holds FTI at around 4%, while IEZ holds FTI at around 5%, so there is some overlap. Even so, these ETFs still give a useful read on the wider oil, gas, services and equipment backdrop.

Starting with OIH on the monthly timeframe, I have kept the chart clean and simple.

I am not usually one for trend lines, but in this case it helps highlight the bigger picture. The market has clearly been in a long-term downtrend, with the general direction of travel being southwards.

However, when we drop down to the weekly view, the picture becomes more interesting.

We can see a clear bottoming-out process after the March 2020 pandemic low. That was an extreme moment where travel, transport and oil demand were under huge pressure, but the sector still needed to function. Goods still had to move, energy still had to flow, and the economy still needed oil and logistics in some form.

After that low, OIH formed a higher low around $88 in September 2020.

From there, the ETF began to build a more constructive structure, with higher highs, triple bottoms, double bottoms, further legs higher, and repeated higher lows.

More recently, OIH formed a downward flag, bottomed again around $194.32, and then moved back to the upside.

Events in the Middle East, particularly around the US and Iran, added more upward pressure earlier this year. When those events appeared to calm down, the ETF pulled back, but it pulled back close to where the move had started around late February and early March.

There was a weekly structure break, no doubt. But since then, OIH has recovered strongly.

It now looks like the ETF may be attempting to break above the old descending trend line and push towards higher highs above the $458 area.

That level matters because it lines up with both the previous peak and the old trend line.

So the wider oil services backdrop looks like it has bottomed, recovered and may now be trying to push into a new bullish phase.

Crude oil itself can be fast and volatile, so for many traders and investors, ETFs and stocks offer a cleaner way to play the theme without needing to trade crude futures directly.

I have also marked a pink box on OIH where there has previously been a lot of price activity.

We are now approaching that area again, so I would not be surprised if the ETF needs time to digest or consolidate around this zone.

However, if price slices through that area cleanly, that would be a very strong buy signal.

It would suggest buyers are firmly in control, sellers are exhausted, and capital may be rotating back into the oil services space.

The next ETF to look at is XES.

XES holds around 4% in FTI, so there is some overlap, but it still gives a useful read across the oil, gas, services and equipment space.

The pattern is similar to OIH.

The trend line is not as clean here, so I have not drawn it, but the key area of previous price activity is clear and marked with the pink box.

If XES slices straight through this area, that would suggest the bulls are firmly in control.

If it consolidates, then this becomes a useful value area to watch.

A clean break from this zone, followed by a move towards $160 or the next U-shaped target around $175, would suggest the ETF is moving into its next value area.

Further potential targets sit around $249, $312 and $504.

The pink box matters because this is where buyers and sellers may battle.

The market may need time to move sideways before deciding whether to push higher.

Given the current backdrop, I think the odds favour consolidation or further upside over a major move lower.

The pullback after the war was announced as over was relatively modest, which suggests there may be underlying strength beyond the geopolitical headlines.

That matters for FTI because it is not a pure crude oil play.

FTI is a picks-and-shovels play within oil and gas, sitting on the infrastructure, services, equipment and piping side of the industry.

Long-term structure

Focusing now on the longer-term structure of FTI itself, I am starting with the monthly chart before drilling down to the daily.

On the monthly chart, we can see troughs around 2008, following the global financial crisis period.

From there, the stock accelerated all the way up towards to the $52 area.

After that, we saw a major correction all the way back down until FTI eventually hit a low around $3.30.

That marked the beginning of the lockdown period.

From there, through September 2022, the stock effectively moved sideways.

I have marked that period out with a pink box on the monthly chart.

During that time, FTI was moving between roughly $4.12 at the bottom of the box and $10.75 at the top.

Once the stock moved out of that range, the monthly chart shows a fantastic move higher.

It effectively went from the bottom left to the top right, which is exactly the kind of structure a technical analyst wants to see.

There were no yellow candles during that move.

We did see periods of grey and sideways consolidation, but never a meaningful break in structure.

The stock continued to move upwards with very positive structure.

Now we are at a similar area near the top, around $77.

FTI pulled back towards the bottom of the current pink box around $63.44, then pushed back up strongly and engulfed the previous three candles, moving back up towards $76.75.

That is a very constructive higher-timeframe move.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

When we drill down into the daily chart and look at the more recent lower timeframe structure, we can see that same pink box more clearly.

FTI came right back down to the bottom of the box and touched approximately four times.

After that, the stock moved higher, pulled back, created a higher low, and then pushed up again.

What we want to see now is a firm break of this box.

FTI has been moving sideways for approximately four months, from around 16 March 2026 to 20 July 2026.

That is a healthy period of consolidation after the rapid move higher that came before it.

Now that the stock has consolidated for around four months, and considering the wider ETF backdrop in OIH, XES and IEZ, I like the idea that, on the balance of probabilities, FTI can continue to move higher and break out to further all-time highs.

Interesting Pattern/structure

One important point to note is the white vertical line, which marks the first trading day after the current Middle East conflict began.

The market naturally pulled back as an initial reaction and double-bottomed around $60.66.

What is interesting is that, from there, FTI moved back up into the pink box and never broke that $60.66 structure. The closest it came was around $63.

For me, that confirms $60.66 is an important support area.

The fact that FTI held that zone, pushed higher, and then formed a higher low on the next pullback is a bullish signal.

This is clearest on the weekly timeframe.

It suggests that, despite the stop-start nature of the conflict and the headlines around it, the longer-term trend in this stock and the wider oil services sector remains upward.

The war may simply have interrupted a broader structural move that was already underway in crude oil, resources and oilfield services.

On the balance of probabilities, this adds to the bullish case for FTI moving higher.

Entry trigger:

For the entry trigger, I am sticking with the usual two rules.

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue Candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

If FTI breaks out cleanly above the current pink box and starts moving towards the daily targets, each fresh higher low can be used as a new level to protect the trade.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle, or from a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For FTI specifically, the cleaner add would be either a confirmed break above the current box followed by a pullback, or the next 4-hour grey-to-blue candle while the higher-low structure remains intact.

Potential target range:

$91 – $97

That represents approximately 18% to 27% upside from the current area.

Activated price targets:

Not specified

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 20 July 2026

Sector: Finance / Multi-Line Insurance

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: IAK – Insurance ETF 1M candles 1W candles 1D candles

Opening/macro/sector context

From an ETF perspective and looking at the wider backdrop for this sector, we can see an almost perfect box forming on the IAK insurance ETF.

The box has formed between roughly $138 on the top side and $125 on the downside.

This period of consolidation has been going on since November 2024.

We can now see that the sector has started to break out and move well outside the pink box.

IAK has now spent approximately three and a half weeks outside the pink box.

More recently, as best seen on the daily chart, the ETF pulled back toward $140, formed a higher low, and then pushed back out again.

That move left behind a small island formation of two candles before the ETF continued pushing out to all-time highs.

The perfect setup would have been a move all the way back down to touch the top of the pink box on the daily candles.

However, price stopped just a couple of dollars short of giving that perfect touch of the box before moving back up again.

So the macro and sector backdrop here looks favourable for insurance.

There is also a broader point worth noting about insurance as a business model.

As asset prices rise, the insurance required to cover those assets also has to rise.

If your house rises in value from $100,000 to $200,000, then the level of insurance required to cover that more expensive asset also increases.

That means insurance can have a natural inflation-hedge quality, which is something I like about the industry.

Not only that, but insurance is often mandated.

Mortgage companies will usually require property insurance, and governments require certain types of insurance too, such as car insurance when driving.

That creates a level of structural demand for the product, regardless of whether people actively want to buy it.

Long-term structure

Looking at the AFL chart on the monthly timeframe, we can see that the stock has been consolidating inside the pink box going back to August 2024.

During that time, the range has been roughly $115 on the top side and $96 on the downside.

There were several attempts to poke out above the pink box, but each time selling pressure pushed price back down into the range.

That happened in February 2026, April 2026 and May 2026.

In June 2026, price finally closed and remained above the pink box.

So far this month, we have had what can only be described as a very bullish candle, with only a very short wick at the top.

The candle is now well outside the pink box and has been there for the best part of a month.

That is a very constructive higher-timeframe sign.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Going down to the daily view, we can see that when AFL initially pushed out of the box, there was some hesitancy.

Between 5th June and 18th June, price sat just above the pink box.

During that time, AFL formed a smaller consolidation box above the larger pink box.

After clearing that smaller congestion area, the stock started moving higher and forming a series of higher highs and higher lows.

On the daily chart, we have now just had the first blue candle.

Dropping down to the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a nice series of higher highs and higher lows forming.

Currently, AFL has formed a series of three blue candles.

What we are looking for now is the next rollover, followed by another push higher.

For me, this stock more than meets the criteria for getting into the trade.

There was a period of indecision where AFL sat for a number of days just above the pink box.

Then, once it cleared that smaller congestion area above the larger pink box, the stock began forming a clean series of higher highs and higher lows and continued pushing towards all-time highs.

Entry trigger:

AFL more than meets the usual breakout criteria.

The stock has broken above the larger pink box, spent time consolidating just above it, cleared that smaller congestion area, and is now pushing higher with a series of higher highs and higher lows.

The next entry would ideally come from a pullback or rollover on the 4-hour timeframe, followed by another move back to blue.

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle, having been grey for the last nine months

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle, having previously been grey

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new 4-hour swing lows form, and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow to blue candle, or from a grey to blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For AFL specifically, the next clean 4-hour rollover and push back to blue could provide a good opportunity.

Potential target range:

$128 – $130

Activated price targets:

3

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

-0.05R

Date: 13 July 2026

Sector: Retail Trade / Speciality Stores

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 3M & 1D candles , IYT ETF

Opening/macro/sector context

I am going to start this analysis with the sector focus: the iShares Transport ETF on a 3-month timescale.

What we can see here is that the transport sector has had a very long period of consolidation.

I have marked out the 2020 pandemic correction with the golden circle.

Looking at that period on the monthly timeframe, it did cause a break in structure.

However, given the external circumstances, that was probably true for many sectors, as the correlation was 1, and everything sold off.

Very shortly after that, by July 2020, the ETF was already back on a blue monthly candle and was moving toward all-time highs soon after.

Even though everyone was still at home, people still needed goods and products transported to them.

It was in October 2020 that the ETF eventually entered the pink box.

From there, the sector continued moving higher, topped out around $71, and then moved into a range between roughly $76 on the top side and $48 on the downside.

In recent months, particularly this quarter, as shown on the 3-month chart, we have broken decisively out of the pink box and moved to all-time highs.

What is interesting is that in the previous quarter, the ETF broke out, but sellers stepped back in.

That left a very narrow body candle with a long wick on the top side.

In the following quarter, the ETF moved beyond that wick, closed substantially above it, and more convincingly confirmed the breakout.

Now, at the beginning of this quarter, and while there is still a long way to go, the ETF continues to move toward all-time highs.

Of course, we are now entering the softer summer months, so ideally the sector either continues to hold up or consolidates around these levels over the coming months.

Then, as we move into the stronger post-summer period from September and October onwards, there may be scope for another move higher.

Potentially, this ETF could even begin targeting the $100 area if the breakout continues to hold.

That sector backdrop is relevant to Penske Automotive Group because it is an automotive- and transport-linked specialist.

Although Penske is not a transport company, one major arm of its business is commercial vehicles and power systems.

That is the part of the business that, for me, serves as the pick-and-shovel work within the broader transport sector, growing and expanding.

If the wider transport complex is breaking out after years of consolidation, then it gives PAG a supportive backdrop for its own multi-year breakout.

Long-term structure

Looking at the long-term structure of PAG, I have identified two major periods during which the stock experienced significant consolidation.

In the first pink box, the price bounced between roughly $56 on the upper side and $19 on the lower side for a very long time.

That consolidation lasted from June 2012 until the stock finally broke out in January 2021.

Once it broke out, the price powered higher, topping out around $179 to $188.

The old adage feels very relevant here: the longer spent in consolidation, the larger the move into space.

Now, looking at the second pink box, we can see another major consolidation period.

This box started after PAG initially peaked at around $180, with the top of the box at around $189 and the bottom at around $134.

This month, the stock has started to break above that box.

As of this week, PAG has now had approximately two positive daily closes above the pink box.

Considering how long this stock has spent consolidating sideways, this looks like a very bullish setup.

What we now need to ensure is that the breakout is sustained and that the price starts moving closer to $200.

There are two ways this could play out.

The first is that price comes back to touch the top of the pink box, testing previous resistance as support, before then moving higher towards $200.

The second is that market momentum remains in our favour, and PAG continues to push directly towards $200.

Either situation works for me.

What I really need to see is the stock moving away from this previous consolidation area and pushing into new all-time highs.

That would help confirm that this is a genuine breakout and the start of a new bullish move higher.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Dropping down to the lower timeframe, such as the 4-hour chart, we can see that PAG has begun closing above the pink box.

Those closures have so far been sustained on the 4-hour candles.

The stock is still only just above the $189 area, currently trading around $194.

So while the breakout is encouraging, we still need to see that level hold and price push higher from here.

A stronger move away from the $189 area would bolster confidence that buyers are in control and that this is not simply another failed attempt to break out.

Entry trigger:

PAG has started to break above the second long-term pink box and now has approximately two positive daily closes above that breakout area.

Ideally, I would like to see the breakout hold, with price either pushing towards $200 or coming back to test the top of the pink box around $189 as support before moving higher.

The usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the box's top, then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle, having just turned blue after nine quarters of grey candles

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For PAG specifically, the best add-on would be either a clean retest of the $189 breakout area or the next 4-hour pullback that turns back to blue while structure remains intact.

Potential target range:

$217 – $238

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 10 July 2026

Sector: Finance / Major Banks

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1M candles 1D candles IXG XLF

Opening/macro/sector context

I am going to approach this one, as they say in the business, from the top down.

First, I want to start with the global financial sector, then move to the US financial sector, and finally come down to JPMorgan itself.

Looking first at IXG, the iShares Global Financials ETF, we can see the lows of the 2008 financial crisis marked out with the first golden circle.

During that period, the structure broke down significantly, and the ETF fell towards major lows.

After that, we have had a very slow grind upwards, with some periods of sideways movement along the way.

Broadly speaking, though, we could draw a trend line marking those bottoms, and the market has moved upward, albeit slowly.

It is worth remembering that this is a global financials ETF.

So this is effectively showing banks across the world all collapsing together in 2008, with correlation going to one, and then slowly beginning the long process of repairing their balance sheets.

That repair may have come through writing off bad loans, rebuilding capital, central bank support, or a combination of all of those.

Regardless of the merits or morality of printing money and bailing out banks, if we set politics aside, the reality is that the sector is back.

As trend- and momentum-following traders, what do we see happening globally?

We see banks globally breaking out to all-time highs.

That is also something I have been seeing in the stock screens I run across Europe, Japan, the USA and Canada.

Japan, in particular, has many banks in the Nikkei, and they have been reaching ATHs.

Could reshoring mean that local banks in local currency are back in vogue, as you need to borrow domestically - just a thought.

I have also drawn a red trend line on the IXG chart.

As you all know, I am not usually one for trend lines, but in this case it helps highlight the point that the sector has been grinding higher for years. There was one key test of that trend line back in 2020. But that was short-lived and normal behaviour resumed shortly thereafter.

Importantly, the ETF held - just - its structure during that period.

It did not actually break the low marked out by the second golden circle.

What is great now is that we are seeing a breakout on the monthly timeframe, with a brand-new blue candle after a healthy pullback.

For me, that makes a strong global case for exposure to banks.

US financial sector context – XLF

Shifting over to XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, we can see a similar pattern.

That is understandable, because any global financials ETF that is market-cap weighted will be disproportionately represented by American banks.

In this case, XLF helps prove a second point.

Not only are global banks breaking out, but US banks are as well.

That adds to the bullish case for potentially going long JPMorgan on a longer-term horizon.

With XLF, it was slightly easier to mark out a box.

To really understand the full picture, we need to zoom out and look at what has happened to US banks over the last couple of decades.

In 2008, during the global financial crisis, XLF fell sharply from around $31 at the top of the box down to around $4.59 at the bottom.

After that, the ETF began a long grind back towards the top side of the range.

It eventually got close to that $31 region again, but then pulled back.

That is understandable.

Anyone who had held on through that whole period finally had the chance to exit near breakeven, so some likely sold, pushing the ETF lower for several months.

Importantly, though, structure was maintained.

XLF then pushed up again, forming a U-shape back towards the top of the pink box around $31.

This time, the pullback was sharper.

Although the structure did break during this phase, that was the pandemic low.

The ETF then made a third attempt at the $31 area.

This time, it broke through and pushed on towards $41.

I have marked that move out with a red arrow showing the breakout from the box.

On the monthly chart, we can see that XLF pushed out of the box, topped out around $41, and then came back to test the top of the old box.

That retest came in around the $ 29 to $ 31 range.

Within that area, buyers stepped back in multiple times.

In fact, there were around 8 touches in the $ 29 to $ 31 range.

After the final touch of that pink box area, XLF never looked back.

Since then, it has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows.

XLF has also just generated a blue monthly candle.

Of course, there is still a lot of the month left, so that could change.

But as things stand, it is definitely bullish.

On the weekly timeframe, XLF has also produced a series of candles trending nicely higher.

Hopefully, that strength can now carry over into the monthly timeframe and potentially lead to a multi-month breakout in the US banking sector and the XLF ETF.

Long-term structure

Moving on to the longer-term structure of JPMorgan Chase, what we now have is a blue candle on the wizard and a breakout to all-time highs.

The monthly candle has just moved from grey to blue, which is obviously a very bullish sign, especially on a monthly timeframe.

We have also had a healthy pullback, with price pulling all the way back to around $277.

Over the last quarter, JPMorgan has recovered from that pullback and is now pushing out to all-time highs.

We have not quite formed a higher high yet because we do not know where this move will ultimately end.

But as things stand, the stock is trading at all-time highs around $335.

This is before the market close, so of course things could change afterwards.

However, as it stands, we have a blue monthly candle.

We do not yet know how the full month will pan out, but the structure we have so far is very constructive and in line with the broader trend locally and globally.

We also have a series of weekly blue candles.

My one hesitancy here is that quite a few of them are wicky.

That suggests there has been selling pressure on the topside of the move.

Over the last month of weekly candles, three of the bars have had very thin bodies, suggesting sellers have been active near these highs.

So we definitely need to beat that selling pressure before being more confident buying into this market.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Looking at JPMorgan Chase on the daily timeframe, we can also see quite wicky behaviour around these all-time highs.

That is natural.

At all-time highs, some investors will instinctively want to take profit off the table.

From our perspective, as traders trying to ride the coattails of the larger institutions, what we want to see is a strong push through the previous all-time high and above those wicks.

We want to see sellers get exhausted and throw in the towel, and let the buyers push the market higher,

For me, that would mean a very bullish break, ideally something like a bullish engulfing candle on the daily/weekly timeframe, and a close above $343.

That would suggest the buyers have finally absorbed the selling pressure and are now back in control.

Entry trigger:

We could technically get into this trade on the next blue bar on the 4-hour timeframe.

However, for me, this one may still be a little bit early, and JPMorgan could chop around at these levels for longer than expected.

The cleaner entry would be a move above $343.

Ideally, I would want to see a strong daily or weekly close well above that level, suggesting buyers are in control.

After that, I would then look for the next pullback on either the 4-hour or 1-hour timeframe to buy into the market.

The usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the box's top, then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle so far this month, having previously been grey. Some caution is required here as the month has not yet closed.

1W: Blue candle, although as mentioned, quite wicky on the top side

1D: Grey candle

4H: Grey candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For JPMorgan specifically, I would prefer the stock to clear $343 first, then look for the next clean 4-hour or 1-hour pullback to add or enter.

Potential target range:

$381

Activated price targets:

1

Am I in this trade?

Yes, I have opened a small starter position.

Current R multiple:

-0.05R

An insurance company is heading out to an all-time high.

Date: 7 July 2026

Sector: Finance / Multi-Line Insurance

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1M candles 4H candles KIE IAK

Opening/macro/sector context

When we look at the two leading ETFs in the insurance sector, both are showing fantastic returns and breakouts.

Looking first at IAK, we can see a multi-month consolidation that has now broken out.

June produced a very strong positive engulfing candle, which engulfed the previous six monthly candles.

This month is also off to a flying start, with IAK not just breaking out of the top of the range, but bolting out of it.

In fact, the consolidation period almost forms a perfect square on the monthly chart, without much guesswork.

Looking at KIE, the monthly chart shows a very similar pattern too.

That provides further confirmation that the insurance sector has been in broad consolidation for roughly the past year and now looks ready to make its next leg higher.

While writing this article, it looks as though both KIE and IAK may have investment cases of their own, but that would require a separate write-up. They could potentially be a simple, broad-based way to play this particular trade.

For now, Allstate Corporation seems to have both the sector winds at its back and its own strong technical picture.

One slight difference I would note is that Allstate has not formed a perfect square pattern as we saw on the two ETFs.

Although I have drawn a box around the consolidation, it looks more like an upward flag, better seen on the weekly.

Long-term structure

Looking at the long-term technical structure of Allstate, the stock first floated around $14 in June 1993.

As of the close on 6 July 2026, the stock was trading around $248.

Had you been able to hold on all this time, you would be sitting on a return of roughly 1,724%.

Of course, there have been long periods of sideways action along the way, which I have marked out using the three pink boxes.

Taking each of those boxes individually, the first pink box shows a long sideways period.

Within that first box, there was one notable monthly move where the price broke out, came back down, touched the top of the box, formed a higher high, but then fell back inside the pink box.

After that, the stock continued to grind sideways and lower.

It is not often that you see the top of the box touched twice.

My inclination would normally be that, having broken out of the pink box, come back to touch it, gone higher, and then come back to touch it again, that second touch would reinforce the support line. In theory, that should have suggested stronger support.

In reality, it turned out to be weak support, and the stock fell back into the box.

The first proper breakout occurred around July 2013, and the stock went on to form a nice structure of higher highs and higher lows.

There were breaks in the structure along the way, which I have marked with golden circles.

However, all of them were relatively short-lived, and on each occasion, buyers stepped back in.

In the second pink box, I have marked three structural breaks with circles.

There were three attempts to break out of the $137 to $143 range, but on none of those occasions did the blue bars punch through the top of the box.

Overall, the market remained range-bound between roughly $ 65 and $ 145.

Allstate eventually broke out through the top of that box in January 2024.

Since then, the stock moved up quite rapidly before entering the third box.

From there, it continued to move slowly upwards on the monthly timeframe.

Then, in June 2026, Allstate punched out through the top of the pink box.

We have now had two weekly closes outside the pink box and nine daily closes above it.

That more than meets my standard criteria of three daily closes above the breakout level.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Dropping down to the 4-hour chart, we can see a nice series of blue candles forming above the pink box.

There have also been some pullbacks to grey, and those have provided good opportunities to get in on the next blue candle that appeared.

We have also just formed another grey candle.

Taking the next blue candle on the 4-hour timeframe could be a good opportunity to potentially carry on riding this trade towards further all-time highs.

Entry trigger:

Allstate has already more than met the standard breakout criteria, with two weekly closes outside the pink box and nine daily candle closes above the breakout level.

The next potential entry would be the next 4-hour grey-to-blue candle change, provided price continues to hold above the pink box and structure remains intact.

The usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Grey candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For Allstate specifically, the next 4-hour grey-to-blue candle could provide a good opportunity to add if the stock continues to hold above the breakout area.

Potential target range:

$251 – $264

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

+1R

Date: 6 July 2026

Sector: Finance / Major Banks

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1Month 1D candles XLF Monthly XLF Weekly

Opening/macro/sector context

PNC Financial Services is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The company provides a full range of banking services, including retail banking for ordinary consumers and businesses, corporate and institutional banking, and asset management.

So this is a full-suite banking business, as you would expect from a bank of this size.

What makes PNC interesting is that the broader financial sector also appears to be in a very positive, bullish trend at the moment.

This can be seen in the ticker XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, which contains many of the major US banks.

A similar trend has also been noted on the Canadian Stock Exchange, with names such as Royal Bank of Canada (ticker: RY).

Looking at XLF on the monthly timeframe, we can see that it had stalled out in a slightly messy topping pattern.

However, most recently, it has printed a blue monthly candle.

That suggests buyers may be stepping back in, and there is the potential for a bullish breakout in the wider financial sector as well.

There was a break in structure on XLF, which is more evident on the weekly chart.

XLF broke the $51 support level and moved down towards $48.

However, after that, it quickly recovered, formed a higher high, and is now pushing back towards all-time highs.

So there is a good sector tailwind here too.

There is also the possibility that, if rates move higher, banks may benefit from being able to charge higher rates across parts of the yield curve.

Long-term structure

Looking at the long-term structure of PNC, the stock first floated around $3 and is currently sitting around $249.

Had you been able to hold from the beginning, you would be sitting on roughly a 6,570% return.

Not bad at all, especially considering some of the turbulent periods the stock has gone through.

One of the most obvious periods was the 2008–2009 financial crisis, which was a once-in-a-lifetime event for the banking sector.

I have marked that period out as a low and a break in structure.

There was another structural break during the COVID lows in March 2020.

However, the support level around $75 held; buyers stepped back in, and the stock quickly began pushing back towards all-time highs - at the time, it can feel like the end of the world, which is exactly what the media want.

I have also marked out a double bottom around $109 on the PNC chart.

After that double bottom was hit, PNC began forming a nice succession of positive structure, with higher highs and higher lows.

Obviously, we would now like to see the market push higher and extend.

Importantly, we have also had a good period of consolidation prior to this breakout, suggesting that energy is coiled up for the next move.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Looking at the weekly chart, I have drawn a pink box since the last attempt at the all-time high.

That consolidation period has lasted from February through to July, meaning a good chunk of this year has been spent in sideways price action.

During that time, PNC held its support levels, and it did not break structure.

Now the stock is forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, and it has pushed out to all-time highs.

Last week, we had almost a full week where every day closed above the previous week’s all-time high.

That adds weight to the argument that PNC is showing very positive price action and is highly likely to exit this consolidation phase and move higher.

This more than meets the criteria of three closes above the previous week's all-time high.

It is also worth highlighting that PNC has moved out of the pink box on the 4-hour timeframe.

Price then pulled back and almost touched the very top of that pink box - it could yet do it.

If it can now hold that area and move higher again, that would continue to add to the bullish case.

Entry trigger:

For PNC specifically, this setup already more than meets the criteria of three closes above the previous all-time high.

The stock has also moved out of the 4-hour pink box and pulled back close to the top of the box.

If the price can hold that area and move higher again, that would provide further confirmation of the breakout.

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Grey candles recently, but the next 4-hour blue candle could provide the entry.

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For PNC specifically, the next 4-hour grey-to-blue candle could provide the entry if the stock continues to hold above the breakout area.

Potential target range:

$253 – $299

Activated price targets:

3

Am I in this trade?

No, but I will be looking to take it when the market opens.

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 3 July 2026

Sector: Health Technology / Biotechnology

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link: 1M candles & 4H Candles

Opening/macro/sector context

Moderna is the company that obviously became very famous during the 2020 pandemic.

It became best known for its messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology.

The company also develops and produces a number of other products, including vaccines, cancer treatments, and other immuno-oncology therapeutics.

Post-pandemic, though, the stock was unable to maintain the performance it had delivered while nationwide vaccine programmes were being rolled out across much of the Western world.

In some respects, that is a good thing, because it indicates that this recent period of history has come to an end.

However, for the stock, it caused a significant re-rating lower.

Overall technical analysis

On the monthly chart, I have marked out some key areas that I believe are pertinent to this particular setup.

At the bottom of the monthly chart, we have what appears to be an almost perfectly symmetrical U-shaped bottom forming pattern.

On the left-hand side of the U, you can see the sellers slowly disappearing.

The stock then completely flattened out, where buyers and sellers appeared to agree that this was the fair-value area within a very narrow range.

Then, on the right-hand side of the U, you can slowly start to see buyers enter the market, beginning to outpace sellers and pushing the stock back up.

The long bottom pattern leads me to think that the seller are out of this market and has effectively left/thrown in the towel.

This stock came onto my radar through one of the screens I run every day, which simply looks for the biggest movers of the day.

That screen often captures opportunities like this.

One way to do this is to use the heatmap feature in TradingView, sort by equal size rather than cap weighting, and then use the day's percentage change.

For a couple of days, Moderna had been moving up significantly, around 7% to 8%.

When I looked at the chart pattern, it looked fantastic, with the rounding pattern forming at the bottom.

There were also some very obvious levels that the stock looked like it wanted to move towards.

The first key level is $92.44, which marks the pullback level from 16 August 2024.

The next level, marked with the blue arrow, is the gap that formed on 1 August 2024.

That gap also marks an area of support that initially gave way, leading to the lower gap.

The top of that gap is around $112.65.

After that, we have the top of the consolidation area around $128.

Then, further above, we have the top of a previous U-shaped move at around $171.

At this stage, I am not saying Moderna gets to all of these levels.

However, they all look to be in play, especially the lower levels.

Also interesting is the multi-timeframe correlation.

Like many of the stocks I tend to pick, Moderna is now showing blue bars for the current part of the move.

Naturally, that is what you would expect with my style of trend and momentum following.

But what is particularly interesting is that the 3-month bars have just gone from grey to blue.

The last 3-month candle started in April and closed at the end of June, and we can see that it moved from grey to blue.

So the bigger macro trend now appears to be behind this stock when using the wizard.

That adds further weight to the idea that the momentum is with the bulls to the upside.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can also see a pink box within this broader U-shaped recovery pattern.

What we have seen since then is a nice move out of that box, followed by the price coming back to touch the top of the box.

That gave us a grey candle, and since then, Moderna has continued to move up and to the right.

The structure has also been constructive.

We have had a higher high, and the price has continued to move higher from there.

So if you are looking to get into this trade now, the ideal setup would be to wait for the next higher low to form.

From there, I would want to see a grey candle on the 4-hour timeframe, followed by a move back to blue, which could then provide the next entry.

Given the current momentum in the stock, that 4-hour pullback may be difficult to get.

So it may be necessary to drop down to the 1-hour timeframe to catch the next candle change.

Entry trigger:

This was a reversal U-shape play

The usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle, having just turned blue from grey

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$94.50

This represents roughly 18% upside from the current level.

Activated price targets:

1

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

+1.15R

Date: 1 July 2026

Sector: Finance / Property & Casualty Insurance

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1M candles 4H candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

I must be honest, I thought the main business Chubb was involved in was making locks.

I was massively mistaken.

Chubb is a huge conglomerate of various insurance companies and is a $136 billion company, putting it in the same broad large-cap space as names like PNC Bank, CrowdStrike and Fortinet.

When it comes to the insurance verticals Chubb operates in, it would probably be easier to mention the verticals it is not in.

The company covers everything from commercial insurance, personal property insurance, and casualty insurance to personal accident, accident and health, reinsurance, and life insurance.

It operates in North America, has an agriculture segment, provides global reinsurance, and also offers specialist insurance for high-value automobiles, collector cars, valuable articles, recreational marine insurance and services.

So this is a global company with exposure to almost every vertical you can imagine, covering both commercial and individual insurance needs.

Long-term structure

Chubb first floated on 1 March 1993.

For much of its early history, the stock was capped around $48.

It returned to that region 4 times before, on the fifth attempt, Chubb finally broke through that level.

It initially moved higher, but then the structure broke down, and the stock fell back into the box.

It was the next attempt that proved more successful.

Chubb pushed out of the pink box and made rapid gains, with only relatively small pullbacks on the monthly timeframe, all the way up to around $162.

After that, the stock suffered a serious structural breakdown caused by the pandemic.

However, buyers stepped back in around the $88 level.

Once that period was over, Chubb began forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, which I have marked out with the red line, and it has not broken the structure since.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Dropping down to the lower timeframe and recent structure, Chubb has been bouncing between two levels: roughly $345 on the top side and $308 on the downside.

That range has been in place since February this year.

I had tried to get into this trade earlier in the year when the stock pushed up towards the $345 level on 2 March, only for it to fall back into the range and continue moving sideways.

Now that we have had this sideways period of consolidation, I think the stock is better prepared for a move higher.

From a monthly perspective, there has been no serious break in the structure.

We have also gone from a grey monthly candle in May to a blue candle in June.

Importantly, the June blue candle was also an engulfing candle.

That adds weight to the idea that the current 4-hour move has the longer-term trend behind it.

At the moment, Chubb has only just pushed above the $345 level, and it has only been there for one day.

The move higher has been quite strong, but I would ideally like to see it sustained for at least two more days.

A move that holds into the end of the week would be ideal, as that would suggest there are still buyers for the stock going into the weekend.

This is a shorter trading week, with Thursday as the final trading day before the long Independence Day weekend in the US.

So tomorrow will be important in showing whether Chubb can sustain its push into that long weekend.

Entry trigger:

I have taken this entry with a small starter position and a very tight stop-loss still only risking 1R.

The monthly candle from the previous month is the main reason for entering the trade.

As the trade progresses, I will be looking at the 4-hour timeframe for pullbacks, which I can then use to add to the position.

The usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

For this specific trade, I have started with a wider stop loss and a smaller position size.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

Because this trade has been started with a wider stop, the aim will be to tighten the stop once a cleaner 4-hour structure develops.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

For Chubb specifically, I will be looking to add on 4-hour pullbacks if the stock continues to hold above the breakout area.

Potential target range:

$372 – $405

That represents roughly 5.9% to 15.27% upside from the current level.

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

• 0.1R

Sector: Finance

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1 Month 4 hour

Opening/macro/sector context

Welltower seems very well-placed to take advantage of one of the biggest structural and macro trends across the Western world: the retirement of the boomers.

Welltower operates as an infrastructure company that helps fund senior housing.

That can include everything from retirement apartments to more specialist 24/7 care facilities for people suffering from diseases such as Alzheimer’s and dementia.

So Welltower offers a number of verticals, depending on the retiree's profile and needs.

Aside from that, it also provides outpatient medical services.

So if someone requires a follow-up appointment with a consultant or specialist but does not need a full hospital stay, these services can increasingly be provided on an outpatient basis.

That means Welltower covers several healthcare and senior-living verticals.

The percentage of the population needing these services is likely to continue growing.

This is also a fairly wealthy segment of the population, having benefited from home and asset prices that have generally risen well above inflation over their lifetimes.

That puts them in a privileged position when it comes to purchasing better healthcare and senior-living services in old age.

Long-term structure

To get the full picture of the stock, you really have to look at the 1-month chart.

What we see there is a steady escalation of higher highs and higher lows.

There have been instances when structure has broken down, but they have often been relatively short-lived.

Each time, buyers stepped back in relatively quickly and pushed the stock back towards its previous all-time highs.

I have marked those three structure breaks with circles on the chart.

The COVID structure break is understandable because everything effectively went into a correlation of one and sold off hard.

However, in this case, the sell-off seemed overdone to the downside.

People who were in care homes remained in care homes and continued to pay their bills.

If there is one segment of the population that governments are likely to ensure continues getting help and support, it is the boomers.

They are, overwhelmingly, in the UK and across most Western countries, among the groups most likely to turn out to vote.

Knowing that, the COVID sell-off would have been a great moment to buy what is almost certainly a fairly resilient stock.

You have a demographic that votes, understands the power it wields, has money, is retiring, and is getting older.

You cannot hold back that tide.

So anyone brave enough to buy the stock during that dip likely got a very good bargain.

For me, there is only 1 real major box - on the monthly.

Between 1 April 2013 and 1 May 2024, Welltower spent a long period in sideways consolidation.

The top of the box was around $159, and the bottom was around $49.26.

So in the long term, I would mark the 2020 pandemic spike below the box as a false breakdown.

What has been most interesting is the move out of the box since May 2024.

Since then, the stock has continued to move upward at more or less a 45-degree angle.

There does not seem to be much stopping this stock.

Every time we have had a grey candle on the monthly chart, it has come back as a blue candle.

In this case, the longer timeframe is more interesting to me than the shorter one.

What we now have is a monthly engulfing candle.

The stock has closed at an all-time high, and we have also had three closes above the previous all-time high on the daily chart.

That is setting up as a very positive picture for the weeks and months ahead.

This is especially important because

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Looking at the lower timeframe, the 4-hour chart shows that Welltower had been in a long sideways price action phase.

Welltower had been consolidating, marked out by my second pink box, from 24 November 2025 through to 22 June 2026.

The stock then popped higher, came back down to test, and is still hovering just above the pink box.

The consolidation before the breakout is there, too, which gives the stock the potential to move higher over the coming weeks and continue pushing toward all-time highs.

For me, it now looks as though the energy is coiled up there, ready for a larger breakout.

Entry trigger:

I have entered this trade because it has more than met my criteria: three daily closes above the previous all-time high.

Not only that, but we have also had a monthly engulfing candle, which is a very bullish signal.

I have left a fairly large initial stop-loss on the weekly timeframe to give this position a chance to move, using smaller stakes.

I will then look to add to the position as we see it break out further.

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

For this specific trade, I have used a wider weekly stop loss with smaller stakes to give the position more room.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Grey candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

Because this trade currently has a wider weekly stop, the stop can be tightened once the next clean 4-hour or daily structure forms.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$230 – $299

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

-0.09R

Date: 30 June 2026

Sector: Electronic Technology / Semiconductors

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link: 1D candles

Opening/macro/sector context

TradingView provides a useful summary of what this company does.

“Astera Labs effectively provides technology that helps improve speed, reduce latency, and increase bandwidth between users and the cloud infrastructure where AI services are based.”

In simple terms, this is an AI connectivity and semiconductor infrastructure play.

As more AI workloads move through the cloud, the need for faster, lower-latency, higher-bandwidth connectivity becomes increasingly important.

So while this may not be the most obvious front-end AI name, it sits in the plumbing and infrastructure layer that allows AI systems to run more efficiently.

Overall technical analysis

Because Astera Labs has not been around for long, I am combining the longer-term and shorter-term structures into a single overall technical analysis section.

The company has been listed for a relatively short period compared to many other technology stocks, having floated in March 2024.

That means the full price history fits comfortably on the daily chart, and we can get all the key information in one place.

I have marked out three pink boxes where the stock has gone through periods of sideways action.

In the first two pink boxes, once Astera Labs broke out of the box, it moved on to fresh all-time highs.

The second box was particularly interesting because the stock formed a near-perfect U-shape back to the $144 level, before gapping higher.

After that, the price moved higher again, consolidated briefly, and then pushed to all-time highs.

The stock then returned to the third pink box and consolidated again.

During that period, the price moved down to around $96 and then rose back up to $229, a level it touched several times.

The most convincing breakout of that third box came on 18 May.

After that breakout, Astera Labs produced a clean move higher, with a series of higher highs and higher lows.

I have marked that out with the red arrow on the chart.

As of the close on 29 June, the stock is now pushing out towards approximately $455.

What makes this pattern interesting is that the stock has now had a healthy pullback while maintaining its structure.

I have marked the last key structural point, the daily swing low, with the yellow line.

That level was clearly held, so this can be treated as a proper pullback rather than a structure break.

After that, the price pushed higher again.

We then had three grey candles, followed by the candle on 29 June turning blue and pushing out to all-time highs.

I have now taken this trade and am looking for the stock to continue pushing higher.

Entry trigger:

I have taken this trade on the daily timeframe. We saw a pullback, followed by a series of grey candles, and then a blue candle that punched through to all-time highs with a good risk-to-reward.

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Given that this trade was taken on the daily timeframe, the key daily swing low, marked by the yellow line, is also important for structure.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Grey (might due to lack of data)

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

Because this trade was taken from the daily timeframe, the marked daily swing low should also remain an important structure level.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$752

This target is shown on the weekly timeframe and represents roughly 65% upside from the current level.

Activated price targets:

1 on the weekly.

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

+0.02R

Date: 26 June 2026

Sector: Producer Manufacturing / Trucks / Construction / Farm Machinery

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 3M candles & 1D candles

Opening/macro/sector context

Deere & Company has many themes in common with Caterpillar (ticker CAT), which I analysed a few days ago.

The company has several verticals, with the three main ones being agriculture, construction, and financial services.

The agricultural side focuses on vehicles and equipment for farming and forestry.

The construction arm focuses on machinery and equipment used in building and infrastructure.

The financial services segment is involved in financing and leasing those vehicles through the company’s dealer network.

This again feels very much like a picks-and-shovels play on the AI theme.

We have a lot of build-out happening, with new infrastructure coming on board. To perform that build-out, prepare the ground, put up the buildings, pour the concrete, and get the sites ready, physical goods and physical capital are required.

That can only really be done by companies such as Deere & Company and Caterpillar.

So for me, Deere is sitting underneath a number of themes.

First, the push towards AI build-out and data centres.

Second, the reshoring theme.

With reshoring comes the idea that something that used to be made abroad will now be made at home.

If the buildings, factories and infrastructure are no longer in place, they will have to be rebuilt.

That can only be done with the help of companies such as Deere and Caterpillar.

Long-term structure

Deere has been around since 1968, when it first floated at around $2.

As of yesterday's close, the stock was trading around $630.

Had you managed to hold on for all that time, you would be looking at a return of around 17,000%.

There are probably not many of those shareholders still around, with the most likely long-term holders being the original family.

To get the full history, I have had to move out to 3-month bars on the chart.

As you can see, I have laid out a number of pink boxes marking periods of consolidation, followed by moves up to new price levels.

It has been a pretty steady staircase over time.

The first three boxes show long periods of sideways action, followed by higher acceleration, then another period of sideways movement, and then another move up.

The move from the third to the fourth box was when we saw very rapid expansion.

In that instance, Deere moved from around $108 all the way to the top of the move, around $440.

The stock then consolidated within the fourth pink box before eventually making another higher move.

After clearing the top of that box around $450, Deere continued higher and is now trading around $630.

That is a pretty hefty move over the last nine months.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

When we drop down to the daily timeframe, the setup gets really interesting.

Deere pushed up towards $673, then moved sideways before suffering a sharp decline to $512 on 21 May.

After that, the stock began to rebuild its structure.

We have since seen a new pattern of higher lows and higher highs, then higher lows again, marked out by the red arrow.

The stock has also cleared the recent peak of $619, set on 9 April.

For me, I would ideally like to see a pullback from the current move.

If Deere pulls back and then gives the next grey-to-blue ot yellow-to-blue candle change, that could provide the next opportunity to look for a move higher.

The aim would then be for the price to push back up towards the yellow bar around $673, and hopefully exceed that level to move out to fresh all-time highs.

I have added an alert around $589, which is the area where I would expect the stock to pull back to and potentially signal a change in the candle.

If that happens, I would then expect it to push towards all-time highs.

Entry trigger:

The usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

For Deere specifically, the recent move has been quite rapid, so it may be necessary to drop down to the 1-hour timeframe to get a cleaner entry.

The ideal setup would be a pullback towards the $589 area, followed by a grey-to-blue candle change, and then a move back higher towards the previous high around $673.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle, having just been grey the month before

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$726

Activated price targets:

1

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 25 June 2026

Sector: Distribution Services / Medical Distributors

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1M candles & 4H candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

I have marked this stock out as an interesting story.

Obviously, the fact that Cardinal Health is moving out to all-time highs is interesting in itself, but what also stands out is the chart pattern forming on the monthly timeframe.

One thing I noted about this particular stock is that, given the space it is in, you might have expected it to reach all-time highs during the pandemic. It would have been reasonable to assume that this stock might have attracted more attention at that time.

But in fact, during that period, Cardinal Health seemed to just move sideways.

Meanwhile, other medical-related stocks, such as Moderna, were moving out to all-time highs.

Now the reverse is true.

Cardinal Health is heading out to all-time highs, while Moderna is still attempting to claw back some of the momentum it had during the pandemic.

Generally speaking, Moderna has not lived up to the price momentum we saw during that period.

That makes Cardinal Health interesting because it is now showing strength at a time when some of the more obvious pandemic winners are not.

Long-term structure

Cardinal Health has been around for a very long time.

We have to go all the way back to 1 September 1983, when the stock first floated at less than $1.

Had you been brave enough to hold it all that time, you would now be looking at a mighty return of around 15,000%.

The long-term structure of the stock can be marked out by three distinct bullish phases.

The first bullish phase lasted until the stock entered the first pink box, after which it moved sideways.

After that, Cardinal Health broke out again, entered another bullish phase, and then moved sideways once more.

That second sideways period then formed a U-shaped return to the top of the pink box.

After that, there has not really been much opportunity or much need to draw further boxes.

During this time, the stock has been moving up, and to the right.

What really interests me in this stock is marked out by the three pink curved lines.

Every time Cardinal Health has had a pullback on the monthly timeframe lasting around three or four bars and then produced the next blue candle, it has gone on to deliver a strong bullish impulse higher.

That can be seen clearly through each of the pink curved lines I have marked on the chart.

This stock has now just completed another bottoming pattern on the monthly timeframe.

This month, we have seen a very large bullish impulse, taking out and engulfing several previous candles.

That is very strong price action and a very bullish engulfing bar on the monthly timeframe.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Dropping down to the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that Cardinal Health gapped open on 30 October 2025.

After that, I could probably have drawn a pink box around all of this price action following the breakout.

The reason I did not do that is that it would have made the chart look confusing, especially with the pink curve already marking out the rounding pattern.

But if we imagine that pink box is there, we can see that Cardinal Health has now just popped above the top of that box, around $234.

That gives us an opportunity to see whether this stock has the potential and momentum to continue moving out to all-time highs.

Looking at the evidence already mentioned in this analysis, it looks more likely than not, on the balance of probabilities, that the stock has the strength to continue higher.

Entry trigger:

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow to blue candle, or from a grey to blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$238 – $411

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

-0.05R

Date:24 June 2026

Sector:Health Technology / Biotechnology

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link: 1M candles & 4H candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

Revolution Medicines, Inc. is a clinical-stage precision oncology company that is developing targeted therapies - Trading View

In simple terms, this is a company working on targeted treatments to help people live longer with certain types of cancer.

So this is very much a biotech and oncology story, rather than a wider macro or industrial theme.

Long-term structure

The stock initially floated at around $29 back in February 2020.

After floating, Revolution Medicines moved sideways for a long period, all the way through to November 2025.

During that period, the stock traded between roughly $62 on the top side and $13 on the lower side.

After that, the stock finally moved out of the pink box.

Once it broke out, it moved higher in a fairly steady fashion before then shooting up to a peak around $124.

After that strong move, the stock came back down and formed an island, which I have marked out with the second pink box.

It then jumped higher again and formed a second island.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

This is where the structure becomes particularly interesting.

The last two pink boxes show the two islands in a little more detail, better seen on the 4H chart.

To see two island-type structures form like this is pretty rare.

Of course, this could have been caused by a news-related event, especially given the nature of biotech stocks.

The first island was marked out between 20 January 2026 and 13 April 2026.

During that period, the stock continued to bounce around those levels, but importantly, it held structure.

Whatever triggered the price drop, there was only so far sellers could push it before buyers stepped back in.

The key floor was around $90.46.

After that, Revolution Medicines punched higher and formed a second island.

This higher island was technically a higher high because the price had moved above the stock's previous all-time high.

Again, we have seen a pattern similar to that of the previous island.

The stock moved higher, gapped up, and then started consolidating at a higher level.

The current island has traded between roughly $126.79 and $169.51.

At the moment, it appears that Revolution Medicines may be preparing to continue moving out to fresh all-time highs.

As of yesterday, the stock has already formed one close outside of the pink box.

Entry trigger:

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

For RVMD specifically, we currently have one close to the outside of the pink box.

Ideally, I would want to see further confirmation that the price can remain above the box before treating this as a confirmed breakout.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$172 – $194

Activated price targets:

3

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Old school tech goes out to new all-time highs.

Date: 23 June 2026

Sector: Electronic Technology / Telecommunications Equipment

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link:

Opening/macro/sector context

Cisco is one of those old darlings of the first tech boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and now it looks like it has come back into fashion.

Just like with all markets, Cisco is a good reminder that these things come in waves.

When the wave does come in, it can come in pretty hard once capital rotates back into a sector.

Although Cisco is not necessarily a direct AI stock, I am sure it has some AI offerings and exposure.

For me, though, this is more of a network play.

It is more about the build-out of data centres and the connectivity between all the equipment required to host these services in the cloud.

So, rather than being the obvious AI front-end name, Cisco sits more in the infrastructure and networking layer that supports the wider technology build-out.

Long-term structure

Looking at the price ramp-up on the 3-month chart, Cisco first floated at around $0.07 in January 1990.

So this is a case of what can only be described as a micro stock becoming one of the great American technology behemoths.

Had you held from the float until today, you would be looking at roughly a 14,000% return.

I doubt there are many people who actually did that, especially given what happened in the early 2000s.

Cisco topped out around $82, and after that, the stock entered a very long period of consolidation.

It now looks as though Cisco may get the chance to live through two major tech booms.

This time, the additional tailwinds are reshoring, bringing data centre infrastructure and technology capabilities onshore, the promotion and subsidising of American champions, and a move away from reliance on foreign adversaries that may not have our best interests at heart.

On the longer-term structure, I have marked out a couple of key lines and areas.

The previous all-time high peak around $82.90 is marked out with the yellow line.

We can see that Cisco has punched through that level this quarter.

I have also marked out two pink boxes, which show large periods of consolidation in the stock.

The first one came after the original tech bubble blow-off.

That makes sense, because Cisco ramped all the way up towards $80 and then moved sideways for years, right up until July 2013.

The second pink box marked another long sideways period, and that finally ended in October 2025.

That breakout has now allowed Cisco to move back towards fresh all-time highs.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Looking at the lower timeframe and recent structure, the setup becomes particularly interesting.

Drilling down to the 4-hour chart, Cisco has just turned blue again.

What particularly attracts me to this stock is that the gap below $113 appears to be holding.

Cisco has now been trading above that gap for approximately five weeks.

The new support level now seems to have moved below the yellow candles around $117.

So, we may be seeing a higher support level starting to form.

It is not perfect by any stretch.

There has been some structural damage on the 4-hour timeframe, so the setup is not as clean as some others.

What I really want to see now is a move above $125, which I have marked out on the chart.

A break above that level would confirm to me that Cisco is likely moving up towards $130 and then potentially out to fresh all-time highs.

Entry trigger:

Usual entry trigger is one of two things:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

For Cisco specifically, I want to see the price break above $125.

That would give more confidence that the stock is moving towards $130 and potentially into fresh all-time highs.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle, having just turned blue from grey

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

The activated price target is currently pointing lower, with potential for an 11% correction.

So at this stage, the upside target is less clear, and the trade needs confirmation through a clean move above $125.

Activated price targets:

1

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Reminders

Cisco is an old-school tech name that appears to be coming back into favour.

The gap below $113 is holding, and support appears to have moved higher towards $117.

The key level to watch now is $125.

A clean break above $125 would suggest a move towards $130 and potentially fresh all-time highs.

However, the activated price target is currently showing downside risk, so wait for confirmation before taking the trade.

Date: 22 June 2026

Sector: Producer Manufacturing / Industrial Machinery / OEM Components

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1M Candle, 1W Candle, & 1D candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

Cummins is an OEM manufacturer that provides a wide array of products used in industrial machinery and commercial applications.

Its drive products include axles, drivelines, brakes, suspension systems, commercial and diesel applications, turbochargers, fuel systems, valve train technologies, filtration products, automated transmissions and electronics.

So this is a company operating across many segments and involved in various stages of industrial production.

That makes Cummins a very diversified industrial company, serving a wide range of customers, sectors and end markets.

Looking at the company profile, Cummins operates across approximately 190 countries and territories and works through around 600 company-owned and independent distributors.

It also has a presence here in the UK, with a number of large sites across London, Slough, the Midlands, Bradford, the North West, and just outside Glasgow.

So this is not a narrow one-theme stock.

It spans multiple industrial supply chains and provides exposure to the broader industrial economy.

Long-term structure

Looking at the stock's monthly performance, Cummins has a long history dating back to February 1968, when it first floated.

After that, in all honesty, we saw a long period of sideways action, which I have marked with the first pink box.

Since then, the stock has moved up in a steady escalator fashion.

There are probably a number of boxes I could have drawn along the way, but I have focused on one historical box from the early part of the chart and the 3 most recent ones, which are most relevant to the current setup.

I have also marked out two circles on the monthly chart, which indicate breaks in structure.

On both occasions, those structural breaks did not last for prolonged periods.

They were generally quite short-lived, especially the one back in 2020.

Suggesting a company with strong fundamentals that investors are willing to buy when it is at a discount.

The pandemic structure briefly broke structure, but it did not even close below the previous grouping of yellow candles.

After that, the price pushed on to new highs relatively quickly, entered another period of consolidation, moved out to all-time highs again, and then entered another period of consolidation.

That is exactly what we would expect from a strong long-term trend.

It is the classic staircase pattern of higher highs, higher lows, and periods of consolidation before the next move higher.

If we look at the most recent pink box on the monthly timeframe, once Cummins broke out from around $391, the stock has not printed a single yellow monthly candle.

It has continued to push higher, forming a very bullish higher-timeframe bias.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Dropping down to the daily timeframe, the most recent pink box gives us a clearer view of the breakout.

After Cummins pushed up, it came back to touch the top of that pink box around the $393 level several times.

There were three touches on the daily timeframe at the top of that box before the stock eventually pushed higher.

After that, the structure has not always been perfectly tidy.

There have been several structural breaks along the way.

However, there have also been some very bullish gap-and-go moves, namely on 6 November and 8 April.

Importantly, neither of those gaps was filled.

Instead, the stock continued to move higher, which is a very bullish sign.

Looking at the most recent cluster of candles around all-time highs, we can see that Cummins has just broken out and closed at a fresh all-time high.

Not only that, but the price had already tested this level several times back in May around the $717 area.

Each time, sellers stepped in and kept the price capped at that level.

Eventually, Cummins broke through support and entered a period of consolidation between roughly $630 and $716, which I have marked with the most recent pink box.

The latest move shows the price breaking out of that consolidation and moving into fresh highs.

Entry trigger:

1. Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.

2. A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle, having just been grey

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$779 – $891

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

Yes

Current R multiple:

+0.02R

Date: 19 June 2026

Sector: Producer Manufacturing / Trucks / Construction / Farm Machinery

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link:

1M candles & 1D candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

Caterpillar is often viewed as a leading bellwether for the state of the economy, and perhaps even the global economy.

As economies grow and companies and countries continue to industrialise, that industrialisation partly takes the form of new buildings, infrastructure and machinery.

It requires trucks to transport goods, construction vehicles to build new properties, and farm machinery to feed the planet's ever-growing population.

So Caterpillar covers a number of sectors and themes.

Importantly, one of the current themes in which Caterpillar should have exposure is the data centre build-out.

That build-out will require many of the same elements just mentioned: infrastructure, construction, transport, equipment and machinery.

Long-term structure

Looking at the longer-term structure of the stock, Caterpillar’s performance can only really be described as like a rocket ship.

Once the price broke above the $410 level in September 2025, the move that followed was extremely strong.

In less than a year, by June 2026, the stock has effectively doubled from that breakout level and is now moving toward further all-time highs.

Looking further back on the monthly perspective, we can see a nice, steady increase over time.

There have been a couple of earlier pink boxes during which the stock consolidated and moved sideways.

However, each of those consolidation phases eventually resolved higher, and the broader long-term structure remains very strong.

Also interesting is that there have been three previous occasions when the monthly structure was broken.

However, every time that happened, the market brought the stock back, repaired the structure, and then pushed it on to fresh all-time highs.

I have marked out those four occasions with circles on the chart.

That tells us a couple of things.

First, when the economy recovers, Caterpillar is one of the places where investors seem to look for recovery in the share price.

Second, it suggests that the underlying company is sufficiently strong that investors are willing to pick it up at a discount when the stock pulls back.

The fourth and most recent structure break is also worth noting.

On that monthly candle, there was a very long wick, showing that buyers stepped back in.

The following month, the stock moved to a grey candle.

After that, it moved to a blue candle, broke structure again, and has never really looked back since.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Moving down to the lower timeframe, the recent structure is quite unusual.

The last four daily candles stand out because I don't often see this.

For three consecutive sessions, Caterpillar printed candles with very small bodies and very long upper wicks.

Each time the price tried to push higher, sellers stepped in and sold into the move.

On the face of it, those candles could be interpreted as a warning sign, because they resemble hanging man candles: long upper wicks, very small real bodies, and very small lower wicks.

However, what makes this more interesting is that on each of the first three occasions, the price level rose each day.

So even though sellers were clearly trying to cap the move, they were not able to properly push the market back down.

It looks as though sellers were trying their best to keep the price capped below $950.

But ultimately, the market opened higher each day, and the sellers’ attempts to push the price lower and close it below the previous day’s close did not really succeed.

To see three candles like this one after another is not something I have usually come across on the daily time frame; even one can mark a pause/pullback in a bull market, and here we had three that closed higher on each occasion.

The fourth candle is then important because it effectively negated the previous three hanging man-style candles.

That suggests to me that buyers are ultimately still in control here.

Entry trigger:

Caterpillar has now had two closes above the pink box.

It looks like the opportunity to come back and get the box touch has probably gone, because the market is moving away quite aggressively.

So now I would want one more close above the pink box to confirm that this trend is genuinely holding and that price is not likely to fall back into the box.

After that, the preferred entry would be a clean pullback on the 4-hour timeframe.

However, if the market continues to move quickly, we may not get the kind of 4-hour pullback we would ideally want.

In that case, it may be necessary to drop down to the 1-hour timeframe to find a cleaner entry.

As of the close last night, 18 June, Caterpillar is currently grey on the 1-hour timeframe, so that may offer the next possible setup if it turns back to blue.

Initial stop loss:

Last 4-hour swing low, or last 1-hour swing low depending on which timeframe gives the entry.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour or 1-hour swing lows form, depending on the timeframe used for the entry.

When do I add to the position?

The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.

Potential target range:

$1,110

That represents roughly 12% upside from the current level.

Activated price targets:

1

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Create a subtitle for me: British chipmaker going out to all-time highs on the NASDAQ.

Date: 18 June 2026

Sector: Electronic Technology / Semiconductors

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link: 1W candles & 4H candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

I recently attended a hardware conference where we discussed the many semiconductor technologies developed in the UK.

The downside is our inability to properly capitalise on the intellectual property that many great British companies/Universites create.

A lot of companies like ARM end up heading to the deeper, better-capitalised US dollar markets on US exchanges when they float.

This creates a flywheel effect.

More and more technology companies are going to better-capitalised US markets, leaving a dearth of technology stocks for investors in the UK, Europe, and the rest of the world.

Lucky for the Americans, this creates a virtuous circle.

The money keeps coming in, stocks keep going higher, and as a result, valuations go higher too.

That, in turn, encourages more technology companies from around the world to look to the US when they want to float.

ARM is a perfect example of that dynamic in play, a company that should have been on the FTSE100, but instead it went to the US exchanges.

Long-term structure

ARM is a relatively recently floated company, having listed in September 2023.

So this is really a post-pandemic stock, so to speak.

When ARM floated, the starting price was around $56.

At the close on 17 June 2026, the stock closed around $413.

On a percentage basis, had you held from the float until now, you would be looking at roughly a 610% increase.

After listing, ARM spent a long period capped by the top of the pink box.

The top of that pink box was around $189, while the bottom was around $46.16.

ARM stayed within this range from the time it floated right up until April 2026.

So this is a relatively recent breakout.

We are now in only the second full month outside of that pink box.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Looking at the lower timeframe, the setup becomes very interesting.

When ARM first punched out of the larger pink box, price came right back to test the top of the box.

After that, the stock slowly ground higher, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows while just about maintaining structure on the 4-hour timeframe.

Then ARM broke out again.

You could argue that this was a smaller box, which I have also marked out on the chart.

When the price moved out of that smaller pink box on 20 May, it accelerated rapidly higher.

Along the way, ARM even created a couple of gaps.

The stock then topped out around $428.

As with all strong moves to the upside, the move eventually has to consolidate in one of two ways: through price or through time.

In this case, the correction came through price.

ARM produced a classic 50% pullback of that move before turning back up and attacking the all-time high area around $430.

At the close on 17 June, the stock settled around $418.

On this one, I wish I had been able to get in on that first blue candle, but that opportunity has now been missed.

So the plan now is to wait for the market to give another opportunity.

Ideally, I am looking for a pullback, a grey candle on the 4H and then a move back to a blue candle to take the next leg higher.

Entry trigger:

The preferred entry trigger is a pullback on the 4-hour timeframe, followed by a move from grey back to blue.

However, if that entry has been missed and the market does not give a clean 4-hour pullback, the 1-hour timeframe may be worth watching.

ARM is currently on a grey candle on the 1-hour timeframe, which could provide an alternative entry if the market runs away without offering a better pullback.

Initial stop loss:

The stop-loss will need to be set once the trade is entered.

It should be based on either the 1-hour or 4-hour swing low, depending on which timeframe provides the actual entry.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Grey candle, probably due to lack of data because we only have around a dozen bars

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new 1-hour or 4-hour swing lows form, depending on the timeframe used for the trade.

When do I add to the position?

Add to the position as ARM gives decent pullbacks, provided the wider structure remains intact and the stock continues to move higher.

Potential target range:

$657

This is a substantial target, representing roughly a 57% increase over the current level.

Activated price targets:

1 activated daily target

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 17 June 2026

Sector: Producer Manufacturing / Industrial Machinery

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link:

3M candles & 1W candles

Opening/macro/sector context

Pulling up the brief we have in TradingView, it states that Woodward Incorporated designs and manufactures control solutions for the aerospace and industrial markets.

So we have here the possibility of a stock that is a play on the ever-globalising world and the long-term demand for travel.

There are still billions of potential customers outside the West who are waiting for their first experience of seeing the wider world. Companies like Woodward may therefore be a play on the global travel trend without getting so heavily involved in airlines themselves.

Airlines are a hyper-competitive space with massive capital requirements and have long been known to chew up investors and take their money.

Woodward could potentially be a safer way to gain exposure to that same aerospace and travel theme.

One final point worth adding is that this stock has been slightly under the radar, sitting below its all-time highs for the last couple of months.

However, it did come up on my all-time high screen yesterday.It also provides some diversification away from the AI theme. There is a whole economy out there which we must not forget about :-)

Long-term structure

Looking at the long-term structure on the 3-month chart, Woodward has, for the most part, moved from the bottom left to the top right.

There have been some yellow candles along the way, but none were deep enough to cause a meaningful break in structure.

The one clear break in structure came back in 2020.

That is understandable, given that Woodward’s main customers were massively affected by the pandemic and the inability to travel.

That naturally led to a sideways period that lasted from January 2020 through April 2024.

After that, normal business resumed, and the stock moved back up and to the right.

In fact, since April 2023, and remembering that these are 3-month candles, Woodward has not had a single yellow candle along the way.

That is a very bullish trend.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Dropping down to the weekly timeframe, we can see that Woodward has been in sideways action for the last four months.

During that period, the stock consolidated within a fairly tight range between roughly $342 on the downside and $403 on the upside.

As of yesterday’s close, Woodward has now had its first close above the pink box, closing at $421.

At this stage, I am looking for one of two things.

The first would be three clean closes above the top of the box.

The second would be a move higher, followed by a pullback down to test the top of the pink box around $401, with that level then acting as support.

If either of those conditions plays out, the stock could continue higher.

Entry trigger:

Three clean closes above the top of the pink box.

OR

A move higher, followed by a pullback to test the top of the pink box around $401, with previous resistance becoming support.

Initial stop loss:

The initial stop-loss could be quite large, near the bottom of the pink box, where we have the last effective swing low.

However, on opening the trade, this may need to be reconsidered depending on the 4-hour structure and whether a tighter swing-low stop becomes available.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle, having just been grey

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop loss at every new swing low as the stock continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

Add to the position whenever there is confirmation of a higher move and the structure remains intact.

Potential target range:

$468 – $589

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 16 June 2026

Sector: Retail Trade / Internet Retail

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link: 1M candles & 4H candles

Opening/macro/sector context

eBay is, to be honest, quite an unusual stock to be going out to all-time highs.

Compared to other retailers such as Amazon, which competed with eBay in the early 2000s, or to Vinted today, eBay feels like the granddad of selling things online.

It does not have the same leaner, meaner feel as some of the newer online resale platforms.

Nonetheless, price action speaks volumes, and this chart pattern is very positive.

eBay is also a slightly unusual technology play because there is no obvious overlap with AI, which provides some diversification away from this theme.

With Amazon, of course, you have Amazon Web Services, and while its online retail offering is where the company started, AWS gives it a clear technology infrastructure angle.

eBay does not have an equivalent of AWS attached to the business, at least not that I know of.

So this is more of an out-and-out internet retail play.

Long-term structure

Looking at the long-term monthly chart, I would broadly describe eBay as having three major trends, marked out by the three pink boxes and the periods in between them.

The stock initially floated around $0.70.

After listing, it rallied, consolidated, and then rallied again up to the top of the first pink box around $24.

It then fell all the way back to around $4.22 before completing a U-shaped pattern back towards the $23 area.

After that, it stayed near that level for a considerable period of time, only briefly peeking above it on one occasion.

Eventually, eBay moved significantly above that level, came back to test it, and then sat on that line once again.

It was only after the final bullish monthly candle, which occurred around 6 July 2016, that the stock really broke out.

From there, we saw another breakout, followed by a series of higher highs and higher lows.

At one stage, the price came back to test support, which I have outlined with a circle, but it did not break structure.

The stock then continued to form a series of higher highs and higher lows before reaching the top of the second pink box around $81.

From there, the price moved back down towards $35 and completed a near-perfect U-shaped recovery.

It then lept up in July 2025.

After that, eBay moved sideways again into the third pink box, where it remained until the most recent breakout. That breakout occurred in April 2026.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Zooming down to the daily timeframe, the setup becomes interesting.

There is a nice rounding pattern at the bottom, marked out by the pink curve.

On the daily chart, eBay has just printed its first blue candle, and the hope is that it closes with it intact.

The stock has formed a nice series of higher highs and higher lows.

I am looking for that pattern to repeat, with price moving from around $110 back towards the all-time high near $119, and then hopefully continuing higher from there.

As of writing, the entry trigger has technically been met.

However, I still want to see the daily candle hold and close blue before taking the trade at the end of the trading session on June 15th (update: it did not close on a daily blue candle)

Entry trigger:

The entry trigger has been met, but I need the daily candle to hold and close blue.

If it does, I would look to take the trade at the end of the trading day.

Initial stop loss:

The initial stop-loss will be around $105, where the stock has support, and we formed the bottom of the rounding pattern.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Blue candle

1M: Blue candle

1W: Grey candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss at each higher wave as the structure continues to develop.

When do I add to the position?

Add to the position every time we get another wave higher, ideally after a higher low forms and the structure remains intact.

Potential target range:

Initial target: $119 all-time high area

Activated price targets:

0

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R

Date: 15 June 2026

Sector: Retail Trade / Apparel / Footwear Retail

Exchange: New York Stock Exchange

TradingView link: 1M candles / 1W candles & 4H candles

Opening/macro/sector context

TJX, known as TK Maxx in the UK, is a discount retailer that has proven very popular.

Clearly, somebody must be shopping there, because the stock is pushing up to all-time highs.

The business model is fairly straightforward. Retailers can sell products in bulk to TK Maxx that may be end-of-line, slow-selling, or last season’s stock.

TJX can then pass that discount on to the consumer.

In a tighter economy, there is an argument that customers may look to trade down while still continuing to shop and buy new clothes.

As traders, we also need to remember that many portfolio managers have mandates to remain invested. They cannot sit in cash for too long.

That means when capital rotates, it gives traders an opportunity to jump on the coattails of larger institutions and ride that appreciation in stock price along with them.

Long-term structure

TJX first floated back in 1968 at around $0.15.

If you had managed to hold your shares until now, the stock would be trading around $168.41.

That is an extraordinarily long-term compounding story when observed from the monthly time frame.

Starting with the longer-term structure, on the monthly chart, we can see that back in November 2022, TJX broke above $78.

Since then, in all honesty, the stock has not really looked back.

It has made a nice series of higher highs and higher lows, moving at roughly a 45-degree angle towards the top right.

In terms of price appreciation and technical structure, we have seen a steady flow of higher highs and higher lows.

There was a small period of congestion, which I have marked out with the pink box on the monthly chart.

Over the last three months, the stock has had a healthy pullback.

The most recent monthly candle now shows an engulfing pattern, taking out the previous three candles - a very bullish signal.

If we drop down to the weekly chart, still within the long-term structure section, we can see that the last two weekly candles have been blue.

The first blue weekly candle was also a bullish engulfing candle that took out the previous weekly candle, too.

That provides further weight to the thesis that this is a strong upward move and may have the legs to continue higher.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

On the 4-hour chart, TJX has recently broken out of its most recent pink box.

During that consolidation phase, the price traded between roughly $168.42 on the upside and $143.34 on the downside.

On 10 June, the stock broke out above the top of that box and has continued to move higher since.

On the daily timeframe, we can now see three closes above the breakout level.

That is important because it meets my criteria for reducing the likelihood that the price will simply fall back into the box.

It suggests the breakout is more likely genuine and that TJX has the potential to continue higher from here. Nex blue candle

Entry trigger:

The entry trigger will be the next grey-to-blue candle.

Initial stop loss:

The initial stop loss will be at the last swing low, around $159.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

1M: Blue candle, having just been grey

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Grey candle, looking to take the next blue long

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new swing lows form and the structure continues to move higher.

When do I add to the position?

Add to the position each time TJX pulls back and then changes from grey to blue again.

Potential target range:

$177 – $184

Activated price targets:

2

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R