ALL – Allstate Corporation
Another insurance company is heading out to all-time highs.
ALL – Allstate Corporation
Create a subtitle for me: An insurance company is heading out to an all-time high.
Date: 7 July 2026
Sector: Finance / Multi-Line Insurance
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange
TradingView link: 1M candles 4H candles KIE IAK
Opening/macro/sector context
When we look at the two leading ETFs in the insurance sector, both are showing fantastic returns and breakouts.
Looking first at IAK, we can see a multi-month consolidation that has now broken out.
June produced a very strong positive engulfing candle, which engulfed the previous six monthly candles.
This month is also off to a flying start, with IAK not just breaking out of the top of the range, but bolting out of it.
In fact, the consolidation period almost forms a perfect square on the monthly chart, without much guesswork.
Looking at KIE, the monthly chart shows a very similar pattern too.
That provides further confirmation that the insurance sector has been in broad consolidation for roughly the past year and now looks ready to make its next leg higher.
While writing this article, it looks as though both KIE and IAK may have investment cases of their own, but that would require a separate write-up. They could potentially be a simple, broad-based way to play this particular trade.
For now, Allstate Corporation seems to have both the sector winds at its back and its own strong technical picture.
One slight difference I would note is that Allstate has not formed a perfect square pattern as we saw on the two ETFs.
Although I have drawn a box around the consolidation, it looks more like an upward flag, better seen on the weekly.
Long-term structure
Looking at the long-term technical structure of Allstate, the stock first floated around $14 in June 1993.
As of the close on 6 July 2026, the stock was trading around $248.
Had you been able to hold on all this time, you would be sitting on a return of roughly 1,724%.
Of course, there have been long periods of sideways action along the way, which I have marked out using the three pink boxes.
Taking each of those boxes individually, the first pink box shows a long sideways period.
Within that first box, there was one notable monthly move where the price broke out, came back down, touched the top of the box, formed a higher high, but then fell back inside the pink box.
After that, the stock continued to grind sideways and lower.
It is not often that you see the top of the box touched twice.
My inclination would normally be that, having broken out of the pink box, come back to touch it, gone higher, and then come back to touch it again, that second touch would reinforce the support line. In theory, that should have suggested stronger support.
In reality, it turned out to be weak support, and the stock fell back into the box.
The first proper breakout occurred around July 2013, and the stock went on to form a nice structure of higher highs and higher lows.
There were breaks in the structure along the way, which I have marked with golden circles.
However, all of them were relatively short-lived, and on each occasion, buyers stepped back in.
In the second pink box, I have marked three structural breaks with circles.
There were three attempts to break out of the $137 to $143 range, but on none of those occasions did the blue bars punch through the top of the box.
Overall, the market remained range-bound between roughly $ 65 and $ 145.
Allstate eventually broke out through the top of that box in January 2024.
Since then, the stock moved up quite rapidly before entering the third box.
From there, it continued to move slowly upwards on the monthly timeframe.
Then, in June 2026, Allstate punched out through the top of the pink box.
We have now had two weekly closes outside the pink box and nine weekly closes above it.
That more than meets my standard criteria of three daily closes above the breakout level.
Lower timeframe / recent structure
Dropping down to the 4-hour chart, we can see a nice series of blue candles forming above the pink box.
There have also been some pullbacks to grey, and those have provided good opportunities to get in on the next blue candle that appeared.
We have also just formed another grey candle.
Taking the next blue candle on the 4-hour timeframe could be a good opportunity to potentially carry on riding this trade towards further all-time highs.
Entry trigger:
Allstate has already more than met the standard breakout criteria, with two weekly closes outside the pink box and nine candle closes above the breakout level.
The next potential entry would be the next 4-hour grey-to-blue candle change, provided price continues to hold above the pink box and structure remains intact.
Usual entry trigger is one of two things:
Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.
A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.
Initial stop loss:
Last 4-hour swing low.
Multi-timeframe correlation:
3M: Blue candle
1M: Blue candle
1W: Blue candle
1D: Blue candle
4H: Grey candle
When should I tighten the stop-loss?
Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.
When do I add to the position?
The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.
For Allstate specifically, the next 4-hour grey-to-blue candle could provide a good opportunity to add if the stock continues to hold above the breakout area.
Potential target range:
$251 – $264
Activated price targets:
2
Am I in this trade?
Yes
Current R multiple:
+1R