ARM - Arm Holdings PLC

ARM – Arm Holdings PLC

Create a subtitle for me: British chipmaker going out to all-time highs on the NASDAQ.

Date: 18 June 2026

Sector: Electronic Technology / Semiconductors

Exchange: NASDAQ

TradingView link: 1W candles & 4H candles:

Opening/macro/sector context

I recently attended a hardware conference where we discussed the many semiconductor technologies developed in the UK.

The downside is our inability to properly capitalise on the intellectual property that many great British companies/Universites create.

A lot of companies like ARM end up heading to the deeper, better-capitalised US dollar markets on US exchanges when they float.

This creates a flywheel effect.

More and more technology companies are going to better-capitalised US markets, leaving a dearth of technology stocks for investors in the UK, Europe, and the rest of the world.

Lucky for the Americans, this creates a virtuous circle.

The money keeps coming in, stocks keep going higher, and as a result, valuations go higher too.

That, in turn, encourages more technology companies from around the world to look to the US when they want to float.

ARM is a perfect example of that dynamic in play, a company that should have been on the FTSE100, but instead it went to the US exchanges.

Long-term structure

ARM is a relatively recently floated company, having listed in September 2023.

So this is really a post-pandemic stock, so to speak.

When ARM floated, the starting price was around $56.

At the close on 17 June 2026, the stock closed around $413.

On a percentage basis, had you held from the float until now, you would be looking at roughly a 610% increase.

After listing, ARM spent a long period capped by the top of the pink box.

The top of that pink box was around $189, while the bottom was around $46.16.

ARM stayed within this range from the time it floated right up until April 2026.

So this is a relatively recent breakout.

We are now in only the second full month outside of that pink box.

Lower timeframe / recent structure

Looking at the lower timeframe, the setup becomes very interesting.

When ARM first punched out of the larger pink box, price came right back to test the top of the box.

After that, the stock slowly ground higher, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows while just about maintaining structure on the 4-hour timeframe.

Then ARM broke out again.

You could argue that this was a smaller box, which I have also marked out on the chart.

When the price moved out of that smaller pink box on 20 May, it accelerated rapidly higher.

Along the way, ARM even created a couple of gaps.

The stock then topped out around $428.

As with all strong moves to the upside, the move eventually has to consolidate in one of two ways: through price or through time.

In this case, the correction came through price.

ARM produced a classic 50% pullback of that move before turning back up and attacking the all-time high area around $430.

At the close on 17 June, the stock settled around $418.

On this one, I wish I had been able to get in on that first blue candle, but that opportunity has now been missed.

So the plan now is to wait for the market to give another opportunity.

Ideally, I am looking for a pullback, a grey candle on the 4H and then a move back to a blue candle to take the next leg higher.

Entry trigger:

The preferred entry trigger is a pullback on the 4-hour timeframe, followed by a move from grey back to blue.

However, if that entry has been missed and the market does not give a clean 4-hour pullback, the 1-hour timeframe may be worth watching.

ARM is currently on a grey candle on the 1-hour timeframe, which could provide an alternative entry if the market runs away without offering a better pullback.

Initial stop loss:

The stop-loss will need to be set once the trade is entered.

It should be based on either the 1-hour or 4-hour swing low, depending on which timeframe provides the actual entry.

Multi-timeframe correlation:

3M: Grey candle, probably due to lack of data because we only have around a dozen bars

1M: Blue candle

1W: Blue candle

1D: Blue candle

4H: Blue candle

When should I tighten the stop-loss?

Tighten the stop-loss as new 1-hour or 4-hour swing lows form, depending on the timeframe used for the trade.

When do I add to the position?

Add to the position as ARM gives decent pullbacks, provided the wider structure remains intact and the stock continues to move higher.

Potential target range:

$657

This is a substantial target, representing roughly a 57% increase over the current level.

Activated price targets:

1 activated daily target

Am I in this trade?

No

Current R multiple:

0R