CAT – Caterpillar Inc.
Breakout for Caterpillar to all-time highs.
CAT – Caterpillar Inc.
Date: 19 June 2026
Sector: Producer Manufacturing / Trucks / Construction / Farm Machinery
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange
TradingView link:
Opening/macro/sector context
Caterpillar is often viewed as a leading bellwether for the state of the economy, and perhaps even the global economy.
As economies grow and companies and countries continue to industrialise, that industrialisation partly takes the form of new buildings, infrastructure and machinery.
It requires trucks to transport goods, construction vehicles to build new properties, and farm machinery to feed the planet's ever-growing population.
So Caterpillar covers a number of sectors and themes.
Importantly, one of the current themes in which Caterpillar should have exposure is the data centre build-out.
That build-out will require many of the same elements just mentioned: infrastructure, construction, transport, equipment and machinery.
Long-term structure
Looking at the longer-term structure of the stock, Caterpillar’s performance can only really be described as like a rocket ship.
Once the price broke above the $410 level in September 2025, the move that followed was extremely strong.
In less than a year, by June 2026, the stock has effectively doubled from that breakout level and is now moving toward further all-time highs.
Looking further back on the monthly perspective, we can see a nice, steady increase over time.
There have been a couple of earlier pink boxes during which the stock consolidated and moved sideways.
However, each of those consolidation phases eventually resolved higher, and the broader long-term structure remains very strong.
Also interesting is that there have been three previous occasions when the monthly structure was broken.
However, every time that happened, the market brought the stock back, repaired the structure, and then pushed it on to fresh all-time highs.
I have marked out those four occasions with circles on the chart.
That tells us a couple of things.
First, when the economy recovers, Caterpillar is one of the places where investors seem to look for recovery in the share price.
Second, it suggests that the underlying company is sufficiently strong that investors are willing to pick it up at a discount when the stock pulls back.
The fourth and most recent structure break is also worth noting.
On that monthly candle, there was a very long wick, showing that buyers stepped back in.
The following month, the stock moved to a grey candle.
After that, it moved to a blue candle, broke structure again, and has never really looked back since.
Lower timeframe / recent structure
Moving down to the lower timeframe, the recent structure is quite unusual.
The last four daily candles stand out because I don't often see this.
For three consecutive sessions, Caterpillar printed candles with very small bodies and very long upper wicks.
Each time the price tried to push higher, sellers stepped in and sold into the move.
On the face of it, those candles could be interpreted as a warning sign, because they resemble hanging man candles: long upper wicks, very small real bodies, and very small lower wicks.
However, what makes this more interesting is that on each of the first three occasions, the price level rose each day.
So even though sellers were clearly trying to cap the move, they were not able to properly push the market back down.
It looks as though sellers were trying their best to keep the price capped below $950.
But ultimately, the market opened higher each day, and the sellers’ attempts to push the price lower and close it below the previous day’s close did not really succeed.
To see three candles like this one after another is not something I have usually come across on the daily time frame; even one can mark a pause/pullback in a bull market, and here we had three that closed higher on each occasion.
The fourth candle is then important because it effectively negated the previous three hanging man-style candles.
That suggests to me that buyers are ultimately still in control here.
Entry trigger:
Caterpillar has now had two closes above the pink box.
It looks like the opportunity to come back and get the box touch has probably gone, because the market is moving away quite aggressively.
So now I would want one more close above the pink box to confirm that this trend is genuinely holding and that price is not likely to fall back into the box.
After that, the preferred entry would be a clean pullback on the 4-hour timeframe.
However, if the market continues to move quickly, we may not get the kind of 4-hour pullback we would ideally want.
In that case, it may be necessary to drop down to the 1-hour timeframe to find a cleaner entry.
As of the close last night, 18 June, Caterpillar is currently grey on the 1-hour timeframe, so that may offer the next possible setup if it turns back to blue.
Initial stop loss:
Last 4-hour swing low, or last 1-hour swing low depending on which timeframe gives the entry.
Multi-timeframe correlation:
3M: Blue candle
1M: Blue candle
1W: Blue candle
1D: Blue candle
4H: Blue candle
When should I tighten the stop-loss?
Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour or 1-hour swing lows form, depending on the timeframe used for the entry.
When do I add to the position?
The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.
Potential target range:
$1,110
That represents roughly 12% upside from the current level.
Activated price targets:
1
Am I in this trade?
No
Current R multiple:
0R