DE – Deere & Company
Potential for U-shaped completion and breakout to all-time highs.
DE – Deere & Company
Date: 26 June 2026
Sector: Producer Manufacturing / Trucks / Construction / Farm Machinery
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange
TradingView link: 3M candles & 1D candles
Opening/macro/sector context
Deere & Company has many themes in common with Caterpillar (ticker CAT), which I analysed a few days ago.
The company has several verticals, with the three main ones being agriculture, construction, and financial services.
The agricultural side focuses on vehicles and equipment for farming and forestry.
The construction arm focuses on machinery and equipment used in building and infrastructure.
The financial services segment is involved in financing and leasing those vehicles through the company’s dealer network.
This again feels very much like a picks-and-shovels play on the AI theme.
We have a lot of build-out happening, with new infrastructure coming on board. To perform that build-out, prepare the ground, put up the buildings, pour the concrete, and get the sites ready, physical goods and physical capital are required.
That can only really be done by companies such as Deere & Company and Caterpillar.
So for me, Deere is sitting underneath a number of themes.
First, the push towards AI build-out and data centres.
Second, the reshoring theme.
With reshoring comes the idea that something that used to be made abroad will now be made at home.
If the buildings, factories and infrastructure are no longer in place, they will have to be rebuilt.
That can only be done with the help of companies such as Deere and Caterpillar.
Long-term structure
Deere has been around since 1968, when it first floated at around $2.
As of yesterday's close, the stock was trading around $630.
Had you managed to hold on for all that time, you would be looking at a return of around 17,000%.
There are probably not many of those shareholders still around, with the most likely long-term holders being the original family.
To get the full history, I have had to move out to 3-month bars on the chart.
As you can see, I have laid out a number of pink boxes marking periods of consolidation, followed by moves up to new price levels.
It has been a pretty steady staircase over time.
The first three boxes show long periods of sideways action, followed by higher acceleration, then another period of sideways movement, and then another move up.
The move from the third to the fourth box was when we saw very rapid expansion.
In that instance, Deere moved from around $108 all the way to the top of the move, around $440.
The stock then consolidated within the fourth pink box before eventually making another higher move.
After clearing the top of that box around $450, Deere continued higher and is now trading around $630.
That is a pretty hefty move over the last nine months.
Lower timeframe / recent structure
When we drop down to the daily timeframe, the setup gets really interesting.
Deere pushed up towards $673, then moved sideways before suffering a sharp decline to $512 on 21 May.
After that, the stock began to rebuild its structure.
We have since seen a new pattern of higher lows and higher highs, then higher lows again, marked out by the red arrow.
The stock has also cleared the recent peak of $619, set on 9 April.
For me, I would ideally like to see a pullback from the current move.
If Deere pulls back and then gives the next grey-to-blue ot yellow-to-blue candle change, that could provide the next opportunity to look for a move higher.
The aim would then be for the price to push back up towards the yellow bar around $673, and hopefully exceed that level to move out to fresh all-time highs.
I have added an alert around $589, which is the area where I would expect the stock to pull back to and potentially signal a change in the candle.
If that happens, I would then expect it to push towards all-time highs.
Entry trigger:
The usual entry trigger is one of two things:
Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.
A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.
For Deere specifically, the recent move has been quite rapid, so it may be necessary to drop down to the 1-hour timeframe to get a cleaner entry.
The ideal setup would be a pullback towards the $589 area, followed by a grey-to-blue candle change, and then a move back higher towards the previous high around $673.
Initial stop loss:
Last 4-hour swing low.
Multi-timeframe correlation:
3M: Blue candle
1M: Blue candle, having just been grey the month before
1W: Blue candle
1D: Blue candle
4H: Blue candle
When should I tighten the stop-loss?
Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.
When do I add to the position?
The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.
Potential target range:
$726
Activated price targets:
1
Am I in this trade?
No
Current R multiple:
0R