JPM – JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Big-cap bank breaks out after consolidation.
JPM – JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Date: 10 July 2026
Sector: Finance / Major Banks
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange
TradingView link: 1M candles 1D candles IXG XLF
Opening/macro/sector context
I am going to approach this one, as they say in the business, from the top down.
First, I want to start with the global financial sector, then move to the US financial sector, and finally come down to JPMorgan itself.
Looking first at IXG, the iShares Global Financials ETF, we can see the lows of the 2008 financial crisis marked out with the first golden circle.
During that period, the structure broke down significantly, and the ETF fell towards major lows.
After that, we have had a very slow grind upwards, with some periods of sideways movement along the way.
Broadly speaking, though, we could draw a trend line marking those bottoms, and the market has moved upward, albeit slowly.
It is worth remembering that this is a global financials ETF.
So this is effectively showing banks across the world all collapsing together in 2008, with correlation going to one, and then slowly beginning the long process of repairing their balance sheets.
That repair may have come through writing off bad loans, rebuilding capital, central bank support, or a combination of all of those.
Regardless of the merits or morality of printing money and bailing out banks, if we set politics aside, the reality is that the sector is back.
As trend- and momentum-following traders, what do we see happening globally?
We see banks globally breaking out to all-time highs.
That is also something I have been seeing in the stock screens I run across Europe, Japan, the USA and Canada.
Japan, in particular, has many banks in the Nikkei, and they have been reaching ATHs.
Could reshoring mean that local banks in local currency are back in vogue, as you need to borrow domestically - just a thought.
I have also drawn a red trend line on the IXG chart.
As you all know, I am not usually one for trend lines, but in this case it helps highlight the point that the sector has been grinding higher for years. There was one key test of that trend line back in 2020. But that was short-lived and normal behaviour resumed shortly thereafter.
Importantly, the ETF held - just - its structure during that period.
It did not actually break the low marked out by the second golden circle.
What is great now is that we are seeing a breakout on the monthly timeframe, with a brand-new blue candle after a healthy pullback.
For me, that makes a strong global case for exposure to banks.
US financial sector context – XLF
Shifting over to XLF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF, we can see a similar pattern.
That is understandable, because any global financials ETF that is market-cap weighted will be disproportionately represented by American banks.
In this case, XLF helps prove a second point.
Not only are global banks breaking out, but US banks are as well.
That adds to the bullish case for potentially going long JPMorgan on a longer-term horizon.
With XLF, it was slightly easier to mark out a box.
To really understand the full picture, we need to zoom out and look at what has happened to US banks over the last couple of decades.
In 2008, during the global financial crisis, XLF fell sharply from around $31 at the top of the box down to around $4.59 at the bottom.
After that, the ETF began a long grind back towards the top side of the range.
It eventually got close to that $31 region again, but then pulled back.
That is understandable.
Anyone who had held on through that whole period finally had the chance to exit near breakeven, so some likely sold, pushing the ETF lower for several months.
Importantly, though, structure was maintained.
XLF then pushed up again, forming a U-shape back towards the top of the pink box around $31.
This time, the pullback was sharper.
Although the structure did break during this phase, that was the pandemic low.
The ETF then made a third attempt at the $31 area.
This time, it broke through and pushed on towards $41.
I have marked that move out with a red arrow showing the breakout from the box.
On the monthly chart, we can see that XLF pushed out of the box, topped out around $41, and then came back to test the top of the old box.
That retest came in around the $ 29 to $ 31 range.
Within that area, buyers stepped back in multiple times.
In fact, there were around 8 touches in the $ 29 to $ 31 range.
After the final touch of that pink box area, XLF never looked back.
Since then, it has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows.
XLF has also just generated a blue monthly candle.
Of course, there is still a lot of the month left, so that could change.
But as things stand, it is definitely bullish.
On the weekly timeframe, XLF has also produced a series of candles trending nicely higher.
Hopefully, that strength can now carry over into the monthly timeframe and potentially lead to a multi-month breakout in the US banking sector and the XLF ETF.
Long-term structure
Moving on to the longer-term structure of JPMorgan Chase, what we now have is a blue candle on the wizard and a breakout to all-time highs.
The monthly candle has just moved from grey to blue, which is obviously a very bullish sign, especially on a monthly timeframe.
We have also had a healthy pullback, with price pulling all the way back to around $277.
Over the last quarter, JPMorgan has recovered from that pullback and is now pushing out to all-time highs.
We have not quite formed a higher high yet because we do not know where this move will ultimately end.
But as things stand, the stock is trading at all-time highs around $335.
This is before the market close, so of course things could change afterwards.
However, as it stands, we have a blue monthly candle.
We do not yet know how the full month will pan out, but the structure we have so far is very constructive and in line with the broader trend locally and globally.
We also have a series of weekly blue candles.
My one hesitancy here is that quite a few of them are wicky.
That suggests there has been selling pressure on the topside of the move.
Over the last month of weekly candles, three of the bars have had very thin bodies, suggesting sellers have been active near these highs.
So we definitely need to beat that selling pressure before being more confident buying into this market.
Lower timeframe / recent structure
Looking at JPMorgan Chase on the daily timeframe, we can also see quite wicky behaviour around these all-time highs.
That is natural.
At all-time highs, some investors will instinctively want to take profit off the table.
From our perspective, as traders trying to ride the coattails of the larger institutions, what we want to see is a strong push through the previous all-time high and above those wicks.
We want to see sellers get exhausted and throw in the towel, and let the buyers push the market higher,
For me, that would mean a very bullish break, ideally something like a bullish engulfing candle on the daily/weekly timeframe, and a close above $343.
That would suggest the buyers have finally absorbed the selling pressure and are now back in control.
Entry trigger:
We could technically get into this trade on the next blue bar on the 4-hour timeframe.
However, for me, this one may still be a little bit early, and JPMorgan could chop around at these levels for longer than expected.
The cleaner entry would be a move above $343.
Ideally, I would want to see a strong daily or weekly close well above that level, suggesting buyers are in control.
After that, I would then look for the next pullback on either the 4-hour or 1-hour timeframe to buy into the market.
The usual entry trigger is one of two things:
Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.
A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the box's top, then a move higher.
Initial stop loss:
Last 4-hour swing low.
Multi-timeframe correlation:
3M: Blue candle
1M: Blue candle so far this month, having previously been grey. Some caution is required here as the month has not yet closed.
1W: Blue candle, although as mentioned, quite wicky on the top side
1D: Grey candle
4H: Grey candle
When should I tighten the stop-loss?
Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.
When do I add to the position?
The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.
For JPMorgan specifically, I would prefer the stock to clear $343 first, then look for the next clean 4-hour or 1-hour pullback to add or enter.
Potential target range:
$381
Activated price targets:
1
Am I in this trade?
Yes, I have opened a small starter position.
Current R multiple:
-0.05R