MRNA – Moderna Incorporated
A U-shaped recovery for a pandemic stock.
MRNA – Moderna Incorporated
Date: 3 July 2026
Sector: Health Technology / Biotechnology
Exchange: NASDAQ
TradingView link: 1M candles & 4H Candles
Opening/macro/sector context
Moderna is the company that obviously became very famous during the 2020 pandemic.
It became best known for its messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology.
The company also develops and produces a number of other products, including vaccines, cancer treatments, and other immuno-oncology therapeutics.
Post-pandemic, though, the stock was unable to maintain the performance it had delivered while nationwide vaccine programmes were being rolled out across much of the Western world.
In some respects, that is a good thing, because it indicates that this recent period of history has come to an end.
However, for the stock, it caused a significant re-rating lower.
Overall technical analysis
On the monthly chart, I have marked out some key areas that I believe are pertinent to this particular setup.
At the bottom of the monthly chart, we have what appears to be an almost perfectly symmetrical U-shaped bottom forming pattern.
On the left-hand side of the U, you can see the sellers slowly disappearing.
The stock then completely flattened out, where buyers and sellers appeared to agree that this was the fair-value area within a very narrow range.
Then, on the right-hand side of the U, you can slowly start to see buyers enter the market, beginning to outpace sellers and pushing the stock back up.
The long bottom pattern leads me to think that the seller are out of this market and has effectively left/thrown in the towel.
This stock came onto my radar through one of the screens I run every day, which simply looks for the biggest movers of the day.
That screen often captures opportunities like this.
One way to do this is to use the heatmap feature in TradingView, sort by equal size rather than cap weighting, and then use the day's percentage change.
For a couple of days, Moderna had been moving up significantly, around 7% to 8%.
When I looked at the chart pattern, it looked fantastic, with the rounding pattern forming at the bottom.
There were also some very obvious levels that the stock looked like it wanted to move towards.
The first key level is $92.44, which marks the pullback level from 16 August 2024.
The next level, marked with the blue arrow, is the gap that formed on 1 August 2024.
That gap also marks an area of support that initially gave way, leading to the lower gap.
The top of that gap is around $112.65.
After that, we have the top of the consolidation area around $128.
Then, further above, we have the top of a previous U-shaped move at around $171.
At this stage, I am not saying Moderna gets to all of these levels.
However, they all look to be in play, especially the lower levels.
Also interesting is the multi-timeframe correlation.
Like many of the stocks I tend to pick, Moderna is now showing blue bars for the current part of the move.
Naturally, that is what you would expect with my style of trend and momentum following.
But what is particularly interesting is that the 3-month bars have just gone from grey to blue.
The last 3-month candle started in April and closed at the end of June, and we can see that it moved from grey to blue.
So the bigger macro trend now appears to be behind this stock when using the wizard.
That adds further weight to the idea that the momentum is with the bulls to the upside.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can also see a pink box within this broader U-shaped recovery pattern.
What we have seen since then is a nice move out of that box, followed by the price coming back to touch the top of the box.
That gave us a grey candle, and since then, Moderna has continued to move up and to the right.
The structure has also been constructive.
We have had a higher high, and the price has continued to move higher from there.
So if you are looking to get into this trade now, the ideal setup would be to wait for the next higher low to form.
From there, I would want to see a grey candle on the 4-hour timeframe, followed by a move back to blue, which could then provide the next entry.
Given the current momentum in the stock, that 4-hour pullback may be difficult to get.
So it may be necessary to drop down to the 1-hour timeframe to catch the next candle change.
Entry trigger:
This was a reversal U-shape play
The usual entry trigger is one of two things:
Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.
A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the top of the box, and then a move higher.
Initial stop loss:
Last 4-hour swing low.
Multi-timeframe correlation:
3M: Blue candle, having just turned blue from grey
1M: Blue candle
1W: Blue candle
1D: Blue candle
4H: Blue candle
When should I tighten the stop-loss?
Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.
When do I add to the position?
The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.
Potential target range:
$94.50
This represents roughly 18% upside from the current level.
Activated price targets:
1
Am I in this trade?
Yes
Current R multiple:
+1.15R