PAG – Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
Multi-year breakout for this automotive specialist.
Date: 13 July 2026
Sector: Retail Trade / Speciality Stores
Exchange: New York Stock Exchange
TradingView link: 3M & 1D candles , IYT ETF
Opening/macro/sector context
I am going to start this analysis with the sector focus: the iShares Transport ETF on a 3-month timescale.
What we can see here is that the transport sector has had a very long period of consolidation.
I have marked out the 2020 pandemic correction with the golden circle.
Looking at that period on the monthly timeframe, it did cause a break in structure.
However, given the external circumstances, that was probably true for many sectors, as the correlation was 1, and everything sold off.
Very shortly after that, by July 2020, the ETF was already back on a blue monthly candle and was moving toward all-time highs soon after.
Even though everyone was still at home, people still needed goods and products transported to them.
It was in October 2020 that the ETF eventually entered the pink box.
From there, the sector continued moving higher, topped out around $71, and then moved into a range between roughly $76 on the top side and $48 on the downside.
In recent months, particularly this quarter, as shown on the 3-month chart, we have broken decisively out of the pink box and moved to all-time highs.
What is interesting is that in the previous quarter, the ETF broke out, but sellers stepped back in.
That left a very narrow body candle with a long wick on the top side.
In the following quarter, the ETF moved beyond that wick, closed substantially above it, and more convincingly confirmed the breakout.
Now, at the beginning of this quarter, and while there is still a long way to go, the ETF continues to move toward all-time highs.
Of course, we are now entering the softer summer months, so ideally the sector either continues to hold up or consolidates around these levels over the coming months.
Then, as we move into the stronger post-summer period from September and October onwards, there may be scope for another move higher.
Potentially, this ETF could even begin targeting the $100 area if the breakout continues to hold.
That sector backdrop is relevant to Penske Automotive Group because it is an automotive- and transport-linked specialist.
Although Penske is not a transport company, one major arm of its business is commercial vehicles and power systems.
That is the part of the business that, for me, serves as the pick-and-shovel work within the broader transport sector, growing and expanding.
If the wider transport complex is breaking out after years of consolidation, then it gives PAG a supportive backdrop for its own multi-year breakout.
Long-term structure
Looking at the long-term structure of PAG, I have identified two major periods during which the stock experienced significant consolidation.
In the first pink box, the price bounced between roughly $56 on the upper side and $19 on the lower side for a very long time.
That consolidation lasted from June 2012 until the stock finally broke out in January 2021.
Once it broke out, the price powered higher, topping out around $179 to $188.
The old adage feels very relevant here: the longer spent in consolidation, the larger the move into space.
Now, looking at the second pink box, we can see another major consolidation period.
This box started after PAG initially peaked at around $180, with the top of the box at around $189 and the bottom at around $134.
This month, the stock has started to break above that box.
As of this week, PAG has now had approximately two positive daily closes above the pink box.
Considering how long this stock has spent consolidating sideways, this looks like a very bullish setup.
What we now need to ensure is that the breakout is sustained and that the price starts moving closer to $200.
There are two ways this could play out.
The first is that price comes back to touch the top of the pink box, testing previous resistance as support, before then moving higher towards $200.
The second is that market momentum remains in our favour, and PAG continues to push directly towards $200.
Either situation works for me.
What I really need to see is the stock moving away from this previous consolidation area and pushing into new all-time highs.
That would help confirm that this is a genuine breakout and the start of a new bullish move higher.
Lower timeframe / recent structure
Dropping down to the lower timeframe, such as the 4-hour chart, we can see that PAG has begun closing above the pink box.
Those closures have so far been sustained on the 4-hour candles.
The stock is still only just above the $189 area, currently trading around $194.
So while the breakout is encouraging, we still need to see that level hold and price push higher from here.
A stronger move away from the $189 area would bolster confidence that buyers are in control and that this is not simply another failed attempt to break out.
Entry trigger:
PAG has started to break above the second long-term pink box and now has approximately two positive daily closes above that breakout area.
Ideally, I would like to see the breakout hold, with price either pushing towards $200 or coming back to test the top of the pink box around $189 as support before moving higher.
The usual entry trigger is one of two things:
Three clean closes above the last breakout of the pink box.
A breakout of the pink box, followed by a pullback to touch the box's top, then a move higher.
Initial stop loss:
Last 4-hour swing low.
Multi-timeframe correlation:
3M: Blue candle, having just turned blue after nine quarters of grey candles
1M: Blue candle
1W: Blue candle
1D: Blue candle
4H: Blue candle
When should I tighten the stop-loss?
Tighten the stop loss as new 4-hour swing lows form and the stock continues to move higher.
When do I add to the position?
The best way to add to the position is on a pullback from a yellow-to-blue candle or a grey-to-blue candle, as price starts to move back up and attempts to break out again.
For PAG specifically, the best add-on would be either a clean retest of the $189 breakout area or the next 4-hour pullback that turns back to blue while structure remains intact.
Potential target range:
$217 – $238
Activated price targets:
2
Am I in this trade?
No
Current R multiple:
0R